These are Morgan Stanley’s highest conviction plays for earnings season
Morgan Stanley sees upside for several stocks as their latest fiscal results are announced. Earnings season is in full swing, with about one-tenth of S & P 500 companies reporting over the past week. About 20% of the index plans to release results next week. Consensus estimates are for S & P 500 third-quarter earnings per share to be up 3% year over year on sales growth of 4% year over year, equity strategist Michelle Weaver wrote in a note Wednesday, which included team analysis. “If the 2Q patterns hold, companies would need to beat on both EPS and Sales in order to see positive price reactions; companies that missed Sales estimates last quarter underperformed more notably,” she said. Here are five of Morgan Stanley’s 10 highest conviction plays, which the firm sees near-term catalysts driving “a meaningful move” upward. Morgan Stanley sees a positive set up for Eaton and is forecasting beats on all key performance indicators, including Americas organic growth and margins. “Eaton brings the strongest and broadest set of secular drivers across US Industrials, supporting upcycle duration and positioning the business for sustained [high-single digit] organic growth,” analyst Chris Snyder wrote in the firm’s note. “Our detailed organic growth build supports steady ~8% organic growth in 2025-26, roughly ~200 bps above Consensus, which drives [mid-single digit] EPS upside and argues for multiple expansion on sustained strength,” he added. His price target of $370 implies 6% upside from Friday’s close. Eaton is set to report third-quarter earnings on Oct. 29. Meanwhile, four-time CNBC Disruptor 50 company Lineage , which went public in July , should deliver a mid-single digit same-store net operating income growth rate at the end of the year, analyst Ron Kamden said. The global leader in temporary warehouse space owns the highest quality portfolio and differentiated tech platform, he said. “We see a good entry point: bulls have been waiting for (1) a potential inflection in the USDA data that can drive margin improvement, which [we] expect in 4Q24 and 1H25; and (2) potential external growth to accelerate,” he wrote in the note. His price target of $100 suggests shares could rise 29% from Friday’s close. Lineage is expected to release third-quarter results on Nov. 6. Lastly, sentiment is turning negative on Microsoft ahead of its fiscal first-quarter earnings report thanks to fears of ramping capital expenditures, lack of visibility in artificial-intelligence revenue and gross margin compression, analyst Keith Weiss said. “We see this creating a ‘wall of worry’ against which the stock can work, as we expect to come out of Q1 earnings with more visibility on a path for Azure to accelerate to the high-30% range in the F2H, Copilot adoption to ramp more meaningfully, and single-digit operating expense growth to offset gross margin pressures,” he said. His $506 price target implies 21% upside from Friday’s close. The tech giant is expected to announce its fiscal first-quarter results on Oct. 30. — CNBC’s Sarah Min contributed reporting.
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