Big banks kick off the reporting season, along with a major health insurer
The corporate earnings season kicks off in earnest this week, led by the six major U.S. banks. Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are all scheduled to post fourth-quarter results. UnitedHealth is also among the roughly 20 S & P 500 names on deck to report. Expectations for the reporting period are high, with analysts estimating nearly 12% year-on-year earnings growth for the fourth quarter, according to FactSet data. If that’s the case, it would be the strongest yearly profit expansion since the fourth quarter of 2021. Take a look at CNBC Pro’s breakdown of what’s expected from this week’s key reports. All times are ET. Wednesday JPMorgan Chase is set to report earnings before the market open. A conference call with analysts is slated for 8:30 a.m. Last quarter: JPM shares popped after the banking giant posted better-than-expected results . This quarter: Analysts polled by LSEG expect a 35% earnings jump from the year-earlier period. What CNBC senior banking reporter Hugh Son is watching: “JPMorgan Chase has told investors that net interest income, capital markets and asset management revenue would notch a strong quarter; so long as CEO Jamie Dimon keeps a handle on expenses, odds are good they’ll top EPS estimates.” What history shows: JPMorgan Chase tops earnings estimates 82% of the time, according to Bespoke Investment Group. However, the stock has fallen on three of the last four earnings days. Goldman Sachs is set to report earnings in the premarket, followed by a conference call at 9:30 a.m. Last quarter: GS beat earnings expectations thanks to strong stock trading and investment banking revenue . This quarter: The bank is expected to report year-on-year earnings growth of nearly 50%, LSEG data show. What CNBC senior banking reporter Hugh Son is watching: “Expectations are running high for Goldman because the Wall Street firm has tailwinds from rising investment banking and trading revenue in the quarter, while buoyant markets should help its asset and wealth management business.” What history shows: Goldman Sachs earnings have topped analyst expectations for five straight quarters, Bespoke data shows. Wells Fargo is set to report earnings before the bell. The company will then hold a conference call at 10 a.m. Last quarter: WFC reported third-quarter figures that topped analyst expectations . This quarter: Analysts polled by LSEG forecast a muted fourth-quarter report, according to LSEG. What to watch: Wells Fargo is coming off a strong year, rising 43% in 2024. Can that momentum continue? What history shows: Wells Fargo earnings have beaten analyst estimates for three straight quarters, per Bespoke. However, shares have fallen after two of those releases. Citigroup is set to report earnings before the bell. A conference call is set to take place at 11 a.m. ET. Last quarter: C earnings beat estimates , but the stock fell as the bank increased its loan loss reserves. This quarter: LSEG estimates show analysts expect a 45% pop in year-over-year earnings from Citi. What CNBC senior banking reporter Hugh Son is watching: “Citigroup is still a turnaround story, so investors will want to see evidence that CEO Jane Fraser is hitting her marks on expenses and revenue growth, and will be especially keen to hear her give 2025 guidance.” What history shows: Citigroup shares have fallen after the last three earnings releases, including a 5.1% slide on Oct. 15. Thursday Morgan Stanley is set to report earnings in the premarket, with a call slated for 8:30 a.m. Last quarter: Morgan Stanley’s three main divisions generated more revenue than expected, leading to an earnings beat. This quarter: Morgan Stanley’s bottom line is expected to have nearly doubled year on year, LSEG data shows. What to watch: Evercore ISI is bullish on Morgan Stanley’s upcoming earnings report, noting on Jan. 2: “Corporate client activity is gaining momentum and sponsor activity is ‘steadily materializing.'” What history shows: The bank’s earnings beat expectations 79% of the time, according to Bespoke. The stock averages a 0.9% gain on earnings days. UnitedHealth is set to report earnings before the stock market opens. Management will hold a conference call at 8:45 a.m. Last quarter: UNH issued a weaker-than-expected earnings outlook for 2025 . This quarter: The insurance giant is expected to report year-over-year earnings growth of nearly 10%, according to LSEG. What to watch: Questions over future health care policy changes under a second Trump administration loom over UnitedHealth. But HSBC thinks sentiment around the stock may be too downbeat. “With unknowns around policy decisions from the incoming Trump administration which could potentially shake up the health insurance sector, we try to outline five key debates that would matter for the investment case. Given the bearish sentiment and softer comps as we move through the year, there are opportunities for UNH to get back to an upgrade mode in the coming quarters,” analyst Sidharth Sahoo noted in an upgrade to buy from hold on Friday. What history shows: UnitedHealth averages a 0.8% gain on earnings days, according to Bespoke. The company has missed expectations just once April 2018. Bank of America is set to report earnings in the premarket. A call is scheduled with management for 11 a.m. Last quarter: BAC topped earnings estimates on strong trading revenue . This quarter: Bank of America’s earnings are forecast to have more than doubled from the year-earlier period, LSEG data shows. What to watch: Bank of America shares performed well last year, but they still lagged other major banks with a nearly 31% advance. Investors will scan the company’s latest results for signs that it can catch up to rivals. What history shows: Bank of America shares rose after 11 of the last 13 earnings releases, per Bespoke.
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