The Latest Proptrack Home Price Index

The latest Proptrack Home Price Index showed home values have remained resilient to higher interest rates this year, and this continued in November with prices continuing to lift and hitting fresh record highs in many markets, although the pace of growth has slowed due to the increase in properties coming to market.

Further, it showed that earlier this year national home prices reclaimed 2022’s price falls in their entirety, with the upswing continuing in November as national home prices climbed 0.22% month-on-month to set another fresh record, bringing them up 5.53% so far this year and 1.29% above their previous peak recorded in March 2022.

Ms Eleanor Creagh, Senior Economist at PropTrack said:

“This spring has been busier than last, buyer and seller confidence is buoyant, and choice has improved significantly in the major capitals which saw the pace of growth slowing.

Although the flow of new listings hitting the market has risen, demand for housing has remained strong and home prices have continued to move higher, albeit at a slower pace.

November marked the eleventh consecutive month of national home price growth.

After falling 4.02% from March 2022 to December 2022 national prices are now up 5.53% from the low point recorded in December 2022, to sit 1.29% above their previous peak and 5.42% above their levels a year ago.”

Growth slows but prices continue to rise

According to PropTrack’s data, national home prices increased 0.22% in November, marking their eleventh consecutive increase, the longest period of consecutive monthly growth since the pandemic boom which saw 23 consecutive months of growth from May 2020 to March 2022.

Ms Creagh further said:

“This continued lift means prices nationally have grown 5.53% since their low point in December 2022, reversing the fast falls seen in 2022 in their entirety, to now sit 1.29% above their previous peak recorded in March 2022 and 4.54% above their year ago levels.

This year strong housing demand, buoyed by record net overseas migration, tight rental markets, low unemployment and for existing homeowners substantial home equity gains of recent years, has worked alongside limited housing stock to offset the impacts of higher interest rates.”

Key findings from Proptrack’s November 2023 report:

• This year home prices have remained resilient to the higher interest rate environment and prices nationally are higher than they were a year ago (+5.42% year-on-year). This continued in November with national home prices jumping 0.22% month-on-month to set another record, although the pace of growth has slowed with the lift in properties coming to market.
• The pace of growth slowed in November, but Sydney prices continued to push to fresh record highs. Home prices in Sydney have now risen for twelve straight months and are 8.40% above their levels a year ago to sit 1.00% above their previous price peak recorded in February 2022 with prices increasing 0.32% in November. Prices in Sydney are now up 8.27% year to date and 1.00% above their previous peak recorded in February 2022.
• All capitals, except Darwin (-0.12%), saw prices rise in November. Perth continued its streak of outperformance, and prices rose 0.74% month-on-month, making home price growth in Perth the strongest capital through the month. After Perth (+0.74%), Adelaide (+0.34%), Sydney (+0.32%) and Canberra (+0.32%) led gains through the month.
• Home prices in Brisbane have risen at a fast pace this year regaining all of 2022’s price falls. The pace of growth slowed in November, but prices still climbed 0.20% to hit a new price peak. Prices are now 8.85% above their level a year ago and up 8.91% year-to-date.
• As has been the case for much of the year, regional areas saw slower growth than capital cities; prices in the capitals are up 6.62% year to date, compared to 2.76% for regional areas. In November, regional prices rose 0.12% to set a record high, while capital city prices rose 0.26% to a fresh record also.
• Regional SA (+0.84%), regional Queensland (+0.35%) and regional WA (+0.18%) led regional gains in November, with prices in all markets reaching a new peak.

Outlook

This year, despite higher interest rates, home prices in the country have stayed strong.

In November, they even reached a new record, although the pace of growth has slowed due to more properties being available.

In 2022, as interest rates rose, home prices dropped quickly in many areas.

However, these declines have reversed, and in November, prices reached new highs in several places according to Proptrack figures.

High housing demand, supported by increased migration, low rental availability, low unemployment, and recent home equity gains, has balanced out the impact of higher interest rates.

While there has been an increase in new listings in recent months, the positive factors driving housing demand have persisted.

Additionally, rising construction costs and delays due to labor and materials shortages have slowed down the completion of new homes, affecting the supply of housing.

Limited housing supply relative to demand is continuing to offset the substantial interest rate tightening already delivered and deterioration in affordability, according to Creagh.

Creagh concludes:

“Looking ahead, although there is a risk interest rates rise further, they are close to if not already at their peak and while the outlook for the economy is weaker, population growth is set to continue rebounding strongly.

Together with the housing shortfall and continued challenging conditions in the rental market, prices are expected to continue to rise despite affordability remaining stretched.

However, price growth is expected to slow from the above average growth seen in 2023 as the positive tailwinds for housing demand and a slowdown in the completion of new homes, counter the sharp deterioration in affordability and slowing economy with easing effect, seeing the pace of growth slow in 2024.”

About Kate Forbes
Kate Forbes is a National Director at Metropole assisting our high net worth clients safely grow, protect and pass on their wealth. She has 25 years of investment experience in financial markets on two continents, is qualified in multiple disciplines, and is also a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA).