Home prices hit a new all-time high; expert anticipates a new record in 2024
Key takeaways
New home price record reached: The December quarter data from Domain shows as of the end of 2023, Australia’s housing market has fully recovered from the 2022 downturn, with combined capital house and unit prices ending 2023 at a new record.
There was prices grow in most capital cities in 2023: Adelaide leads the chart in median house price growth in 2023, with a 12.7% increase from last year, followed by Perth (11.9%) and Sydney (10.6%). Conversely, Canberra, Hobart and Darwin median house prices decreased by 4.6%, 2.5% and 1.2% respectively.
Record high median prices: House prices in Sydney ($1,595,310), Brisbane ($888,285), Adelaide ($875,034) and Perth ($742,390) were all at record highs by the end of 2023. Unit prices in Canberra ($625,597), Brisbane ($524,202) and Adelaide ($484,407) are also at record-high.
There are further price records on the horizon: Domain forecasts a pending interest rate cut will spark demand and drive new price peaks in 2024.
The nation’s property market has fully recovered from the 2022 downturn, with combined capital house and unit prices ending 2023 at a new record according to Domain’s latest House Price Report December Quarter.
This is the first time they have surpassed the previous records that were set in March 2022 for houses and December 2021 for units and with a potential interest rate cut expected later in the year, our markets are poised to reach an additional price peak in 2024.
The December quarter saw the recovery for most capital cities, with Melbourne expected to complete its recovery during 2024.
It has been a steady recovery for house prices and a fairly speedy one for units relative to the downturn.
House prices fell for three consecutive quarters and took four quarters of growth to recoup, while unit prices fell for five consecutive quarters and recovered in just three-quarters of growth.
Dr. Nicola Powell, Domain’s Chief of Research and Economics explained…
“While stretched affordability, cost of living pressures and high-interest rates were expected to put a lid on property prices in 2023, the undersupply of new homes, cost-to-build blowouts, a growing population and a tight rental market continued to boost housing demand.
This led to new record prices for combined capital houses and units by the end of 2023, which broke the previous records that we saw in March 2022 for houses and December 2021 for units.
What the latest data is telling us is that the prices are still rising, but the pace of growth is slower than what it was in the early stage of the recovery.
This pace is driven by new stock coming into the market, easing the competition, but not enough to halt price growth.
Looking ahead to the rest of the year – in the shorter term, high-interest rates will continue to exert stress on mortgage affordability and limit borrowing capacity.
With an interest rate cut tipped to happen in the latter half of the year, we are expecting to see an increasing demand that will likely drive upward price pressures on the housing market.
On a more positive note, the tax cuts in July may alleviate some of the cost-of-living pressures and inflation is easing, which may help improve mortgage affordability,” said Powell.
This year will once again bring Australia’s short housing supply into the spotlight, especially given the recent news that NSW won’t meet its housing target.
Table 1. The change in house prices so far this property cycle
|
Region |
Price peak | Price trough | Downturn | Recovery | Left to recover now compared to the price peak | |||||
| Per cent | Dollar | Durati on | Per cent | Dollar | Duration | Per cent |
Dollar |
|||
| Combined capitals | Dec-23 | Dec-22 | -5.4% | -$58,077 | 3 qtrs | Fully recovered | 4 qtrs | Fully recovered | ||
| Sydney | Dec-23 | Dec-22 | -9.3% | -$147,240 | 3 qtrs | Fully recovered | 4 qtrs | Fully recovered | ||
| Melbourne | Dec-21 | Mar-23 | -6.6% | -$72,323 | 5 qtrs | 2.5% | $25,219 | 3 qtrs | -4.3% | -$47,104 |
| Brisbane | Dec-23 | Dec-22 | -5.5% | -$47,172 | 2 qtrs | Fully recovered | 4 qtrs | Fully recovered | ||
| Adelaide | Dec-23 | – | – | – | – | At peak | At peak | – | At peak | At peak |
| Perth | Dec-23 | – | – | – | – | At peak | At peak | – | At peak | At peak |
| Canberra | Jun-22 | Dec-23 | -12.9% | -$151,484 | 6 qtrs | – | – | – | -12.9% | -$151,484 |
| Hobart | Mar-22 | Sep-23 | -9.3% | -$70,731 | 6 qtrs | 2.0% | $13,723 | 1 qtr | -7.5% | -$57,008 |
Source: Domain, powered by APM. House Price Report, Dec-23. Downturn compares prices from peak to trough that occurred over 2022-23.
Recovery compares prices from the trough to now. During the pandemic upswing, Darwin house prices did not surpass the previous record held on Dec-13; therefore not included.
Table 2. The median price of houses and units, December quarter 2023
| Capital City | House | Unit |
| Sydney | $1,595,310 | $795,994 |
| Melbourne | $1,047,273 | $579,506 |
| Brisbane | $888,285 | $524,202 |
| Adelaide | $875,034 | $484,407 |
| Canberra | $1,024,214 | $625,597 |
| Perth | $742,390 | $387,218 |
| Hobart | $706,728 | $535,426 |
| Darwin | $640,806 | $371,096 |
| Combined capitals | $1,094,539 | $638,372 |
Source: Domain
Looking at the capital cities, the key takeaways are:
Sydney -House prices fully recover to hit new record high
Sydney’s housing market recovery moved through its fourth consecutive quarter of house and unit price growth – momentum not seen since 2021.
This persistent growth has resulted in a new peak for house prices, recovering the entirety of the $147,000 value lost during the 2022 downturn to cement the market’s full recovery.
Sydney’s unit price recovery has picked up pace, rising about one-third faster over the December quarter than the previous quarter.
This has pushed annual house price gains to a two-year high.
The price gap between housing types remains considerable – a house costs twice as much as a unit.
Melbourne -Slow and steady recovery continues for Melbourne
Melbourne’s housing market gathered momentum over the December quarter, with house prices rising slightly faster than the previous quarter to produce the steepest quarterly gain in two years.
Since reaching a trough in March 2023, house prices have recovered roughly $25,000 of the $72,000 value lost during the 2022-23 downturn – only about one-third into a recovery.
Melbourne’s unit price recovery moved through its third consecutive quarter of price growth – the strongest period of persistent growth since the latter part of 2019 – pushing annual gains to a two-year high.
Brisbane -Records are smashed as house prices fully recover and unit gains reach a 16-year high
Brisbane house prices moved through their fourth quarter of growth, and they continue to gather momentum, lifting annual gains to the steepest since September 2022.
House prices now sit about $31,000 (or 3.6%) above the previous price peak reached in the June 2022 quarter.
Brisbane unit prices continue to break records by achieving another price peak and outperforming houses for the seventh consecutive quarter and closing the gap between the prices, with houses being 69% more expensive than units, now at a 2.5-year low.
Adelaide – Steepest quarterly growth of all the capital cities
House price growth lost momentum over the December quarter to rise roughly one-third slower than the previous quarter – rising by 3.3% – it remains well above the historical average growth of 2.6%.
Despite this slowdown, keeping in line with the city’s ongoing trend, house prices rose to another record high.
Adelaide unit prices continued to grow over the December quarter at an eased pace one-third slower than the previous quarter.
Adelaide is one of only three capital cities where unit prices are currently at an all-time high.
Canberra – House prices fall to new trough
Canberra bucked the overall national trend as house prices fell over the December quarter, reversing all of the growth recorded in the previous quarter.
House prices now sit 12.9% below the June 2022 peak, down by about $151,000 – Canberra is now the furthest from its price peak out of all the capitals, as most other cities sit at record highs or have moved into an established recovery.
Conversely, unit prices moved through their fourth consecutive quarter of price growth – momentum not seen since 2020-21.
Perth – House price growth accelerates
House price growth gathered momentum to rise for the fifth consecutive quarter to another record.
It was the steepest quarterly increase in three years and the fastest rise of any city market.
Perth’s unit prices continue to grow for the third consecutive quarter, producing the fastest quarterly gain since March 2021 and accelerating annual gains to a two-year high.
Hobart -House prices one-fifth into recovery
Hobart’s housing market appears to have moved into a pricing recovery, with house prices rising over the December quarter, providing the best outcome since March 2022.
Hobart’s unit market continues to show great volatility, with an increase of 4.0% over the quarter, reversing part of the previous quarter’s loss.
Darwin – House and unit prices are declining again
House prices declined over the December quarter, a turnaround following the previous quarter’s steady outcome.
Unit prices in Darwin decreased after two consecutive quarters of increases.
Darwin remains Australia’s most affordable city in which to purchase a house and a unit.
For the full Domain House Price Report, please visit here.
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